Urbanism Next
University of OregonUniversity of Oregon

First order impacts

Broad ways that the form and function of cities are being changed by new and evolving technologies.

Change in Congestion

Several studies examining the impacts of TNCs on congestion have concluded that TNCs are contributing to increased congestion.

Change in Demand for Warehousing Space

Package and parcel volumes have continued to accelerate year-over-year with the continued growth of e-commerce.

Change in Ease of Travel

While AVs are predicted to induce trips and increase congestion within central cities, studies have predicted that AVs might increase the speed of travel to and from suburban and exurban areas as they take advantage of the potential speed increases on low-conflict roads such as suburban arterials, highways and freeways.

Change in Parking Demand

In the U.S., it is estimated that the average car is parked 95% of the time, and while estimates of the total number of parking spots differ, they generally agree that we have far more parking than we need.

Change in Vehicle Miles Traveled

Recent studies have found that vehicle miles/kilometers traveled (VMT) has increased over the past several years and some of that growth has been attributed to the rise of TNCs.

Changes in Goods & Meal Delivery

With the continued growth of e-commerce coupled with the advent of AV technologies, goods delivery will likely continue to increase to meet consumer demand.

Competition for the Right-of-Way

The public right-of-way (ROW), which encompasses the sidewalk, curb, and street, plays a vital role in creating an efficient transport system.

Increasing Interest in Experiential Retail

While some types of brick-and-mortar retail have been struggling to compete with e-commerce, other types of retail, especially “experiential retail,” have been flourishing.

Reduction of Brick-and-Mortar Stores

As e-commerce business has expanded, more mall retailers and department stores have shuttered around the country.

Shift in Modes

Travel behavior theory suggests that the decision to use one mode over another is informed by a variety of factors including, but not limited to, socioeconomic status, age, the price of gas, urban form, and the availability of transportation options.

Shifting Nature of Freight

AV technologies have the potential to profoundly impact many aspects of the freight industry and may help to tackle current issues the industry faces, such as labor shortages and high rates of driver turnover.

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