This study examines how Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) could affect urban land use, focusing on which types of parcels and land uses are most likely to change under future AV adoption scenarios. Using Los Angeles County as a case study, the research combines a review of existing AV and land use literature with a parcel-level spatial analysis to explore where redevelopment pressures and land use transitions may emerge. The report is intended to help cities and planners better understand the potential — and limitations — of AV-driven land use change.

Key findings

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Don’t Panic: Land use impacts from AV’s are not imminent and will likely be slow to materialize. There is no near-term need for large changes to land use policy due to AVs.

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Tailored Responses: Policy responses will need tobe tailored todifferent geographies.Proactive zoning reform and incentives, where needed,should focus onthe areas most impacted by AV deployment, (Commercial and Employment Centers) to manage concentrated redevelopment potential.

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Focus on Realistic Scenarios: Future research should focus on refining forecasts based on realistic adoption rates, the economics of PAV vs. SAV deployment, and the impacts already being seen in limited deployments, moving beyond purely speculative scenarios.

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