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Report – Academic
AARP Public Policy Institute, RAND Corporation and Urbanism Next collaborated to better understand the ways in which shared mobility and AVs will be impacting older adults. Through a review of literature, interviews with public and private sector players in this arena, and a roundtable with over 25 experts from around the country, the project team developed a framework that identifies a range of factors around new mobility and AVs that will be affecting older adults’ mobility, independence and safety. The framework is a guide for governments and private sector companies to help them think broadly about impacts, understand barriers, and can serve as an internal checklist to guide future policy, research and development.
Using experience from working on the Knight AV Initiative, Urbanism Next created this white paper to provide a foundation for public sector agencies to approach autonomous vehicle deployment and policy with a focus on equity. This report outlines ways that public agencies can identify community needs and shape deployment to ensure that AVs will be accessible for all.
Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) will impose challenges on cities that are currently difficult to fully envision yet critical to begin addressing. This research makes an incremental step toward quantifying the impacts that AVs by examining current associations between transportation network company (TNC) trips — often viewed as a harbinger of AVs — and parking revenue in Seattle. Using Uber and Lyft trip data combined with parking revenue and built environment data, this research models projected parking revenue in Seattle. Results demonstrate that total revenue generated in each census tract will continue to increase at current rates of TNC trip-making; parking revenue will, however, start to decline if or when trips levels are about 4.7 times higher than the average 2016 level. The results also indicate that per-space parking revenue is likely to increase by about 2.2 percent for each 1,000 additional TNC trips taken if no policy changes are taken. The effects on revenue will vary quite widely by neighborhood, suggesting that a one-size-fits-all policy may not be the best path forward for cities. Instead, flexible and adaptable policies that can more quickly respond (or better yet, be proactive) to changing AV demand will be better suited at managing the changes that will affect parking revenue.
This report is an examination of parking, curb zones, and government service changes in the context of AVs. Given that there are very few actual AVs on the road, the analysis in this report is an attempt to project what we might see, using the current phenomenon as starting points. The report uses a mix of econometric modeling, cost accounting, and case studies to illustrate these projections.
From June to October 2019, researchers at Urbanism Next identified 249 new mobility and AV delivery pilot projects, completed and in-progress, in the United States and Canada. Relevant information about all 249 pilot projects, including sponsoring organizations, key dates, and geographic area, are recorded in this file. This data set provided the foundation of the report Perfecting Policy with Pilots. Ultimately, Urbanism Next used information from 220 of the pilots in the report. The new mobility modes included in this data set include shared micromobility devices such as e-scooters and bikes, transportation network company partnerships, microtransit, autonomous passenger vehicle pilots, autonomous delivery pilots, and non-autonomous goods delivery pilots. The information collected by Urbanism Next researchers is limited to publicly available information collected from online resources, such as reports, government websites, public and private press releases, and news articles as well as a limited number of follow-up phone calls requesting information.
Before the pandemic, Urbanism Next developed a framework organizing the disruptions to cities caused by emerging transportation technologies on land use, urban design, building design, transportation, and real estate. COVID-19 has disrupted the trajectory of these emerging technologies and will, in turn, change some our original assumptions. This paper revisits the original Urbanism Next framework, taking into account the cascading impacts of the pandemic. This report is one of two reports completed by Urbanism Next on the impacts of Covid-19.
How is the COVID-19 pandemic changing urban living? In this paper, we explore the landscape of COVID-19 disruptions to date on land use and real estate, urban design, building design, transportation, e-commerce and retail, and goods delivery. We also highlight the longer-term questions and potential ongoing impacts COVID-19 might have on the built environment.
The Urbanism Next Center at the University of Oregon, in partnership with Alta Planning + Design, Spirit for Change, and Metro hosted the Future of Public Spaces and Placemaking workshop on January 24th, 2020. This one-day workshop, supported by the Knight Foundation, brought together a wide range of community activists, government officials, policymakers, urbanists, planners, designers, technology representatives, and other professionals to share ideas and concerns, and to discuss emerging technologies such as new mobility, Mobility as a Service (MaaS), autonomous vehicles (AVs), and e-commerce, and their impacts on urban space and placemaking. The workshop concluded with a site-specific charrette aimed at investigating how communities can best prepare for these changes and adapt their public spaces to create places that are resilient, dynamic, equitable, and sustainable.
The trucking industry is expected to be an early adopter of self-driving technology which could have a major impact on the truck-driving profession.
The purpose of this study is to go beyond cataloging pilot projects to determine the lessons learned, emerging trends and considerations, and examples of promising practices from pilot projects in the United States and Canada. Researchers assessed 220 pilot projects and 11 case studies. Based on that assessment, they recommend 10 actions for pilot projects generally. The study resulted in 31 lessons learned organized by pilot goals, evaluation, implementation, outcomes, and policy and infrastructure implications.
This report explores how smart mobility technologies can address the current and future needs of transportation disadvantaged communities. It looks at the barriers different communities experience regarding access to smart mobility technologies, and potential solutions to overcoming these barriers.
Common carrier locker systems are a way to provide secure, high density delivery locations in public spaces while improving delivery drivers’ efficiency. The University of Washington’s Urban Freight Lab conducted a pilot project of this locker system in the Seattle Municipal Tower.
Ride-hailing services like Uber and Lyft are changing the way that people move around cities, affecting transit use, active transportation and congestion. Due to the rapid rise in popularity and lack of available data, city and transportation planners have been limited in their ability to make long-term decisions about transportation infrastructure.
This report studies curb use at five typical locations in Greater Downtown Seattle to understand how cities can effectively manage curb access.
This report explores peer-to-peer carsharing, its impacts on travel behavior, and how it can be incorporated with other shared mobility services.
This report discusses 761 walkable urban places in the United States' 30 largest metropolitan areas and their impact on social equity and educational attainment, and their economic impact on office, retail, and housing land uses.
The purpose of this report is to analyze potential impacts and offer recommendations for the cities of Gresham and Eugene, OR, to understand the potential impacts of new mobility technologies – with an emphasis on autonomous vehicles (AVs) – and prepare a policy and programmatic response. While Gresham and Eugene are case studies, it provides mid-sized communities information on how new mobility services could impact their communities and what they can do about it, from broad strategies to specific policy responses. While this work focuses on the various new mobility and goods delivery services that currently exist, the framework that is discussed here is also applicable to emerging technologies that haven’t yet been introduced, such as autonomous vehicles (AVs).
The goal of this white paper is to consider the impact of AVs on municipal budgets. AVs create a “potential rat’s nest of a budgeting challenge.” This paper seeks to begin the process of untangling that rat’s nest, and provide the foundation for future phases of the project that will consider potential additional revenue sources to fund the infrastructure changes that may come from the integration of AVs as well as land use planning implications.
Residential Preference: the social, environmental, and physical preferences that affect a person or family’s choice of residential location (for our purposes, in relation to the urban core and other amenities offered as a part of living in density) The introduction of autonomous vehicles and the comprehensive integration of E-commerce into the urban and suburban fabric will have a widespread effect on the factors the influence a resident’s location preference.
The invention of the internet introduced a new typology to the marketplace, the online retailer. Omnichannel retail strategies - where a retailer operates through both physical locations and online sales - have become a necessity in today’s market.
The University of Oregon conducted research for the cities of Portland, Seattle, and Vancouver to understand how the deployment of autonomous vehicles may impact greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Based on the range of possible outcomes, the cities hope to better understand the policies and programmatic choices available to mitigate negative impacts of AVs and ensure that they can accomplish the goals stated in their climate action, land use, and transportation plans. By working together, each city hopes to learn from each other—as well as cities from across North America—to achieve their climate-related goals.
The transportation sector accounts for the largest portion of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions compared to all other sectors, and GHGs are once again on the rise. At the same time, new mobility technologies are being introduced and fully autonomous vehicles (AVs) are anticipated to be deployed, at least to varying extents, within 5-10 years. (Waymo, Google’s self-driving project, is already operating a limited robotaxi service in Phoenix, AZ with a fleet of AVs.) AVs have the potential to improve safety, reduce congestion, and increase mobility— but they could also increase congestion, increase vehicle miles/ kilometers traveled (VMT/VKT), and erode transit, walk, and bike mode share, exacerbating existing conditions. The cities of Portland, OR; Seattle, WA; and Vancouver, BC have adopted climate action plans with the goal of dramatically reducing GHG emissions. This policy brief is intended to help the three cities better understand how AVs may help or hinder them in achieving their goals, and what recommended actions to take at this critical moment in time.
This purpose of this report is to help the cities of Gresham, Oregon and Eugene, Oregon understand the potential impacts of new mobility technologies – with an emphasis on autonomous vehicles (AVs) – and prepare a policy response. While Gresham and Eugene are case studies, it provides communities of all sizes information on how new mobility services could impact their communities and what they can do about it, from broad strategies to specific policy responses. While this work focuses on the various new mobility and goods delivery services that currently exist, the framework that is discussed here is also applicable to emerging technologies that haven’t yet been introduced, such as AVs.
Autonomous vehicles (AVs) are a near future reality and the implications of AVs on city development and urban form, while potentially widespread and dramatic, are not well understood. This report describes the first order impacts, or the broad ways that the form and function of cities are already being impacted by forces of change including—but not limited to—AVs and related technologies.
Today, warehouses are transforming into massive “mega-distribution centers” located in increasingly suburban areas. However, the rapid delivery expectations of E-commerce will also perpetuate the need for a network of local, smaller-scale supply points.
"Researchers at the Transportation Sustainability Research Center (TSRC) at UC Berkeley conducted an evaluation of the RideKC: Bridj pilot program operating in Kansas City, MO. RideKC: Bridj is a public‐private partnership with the goal to enhance existing public transit options in Kansas City through a flexible microtransit service offered by Bridj. TSRC UC Berkeley’s goal in this evaluation is to assess the travel behavior impacts of the service, as well as to provide operational and institutional analysis."
The Mcity driverless shuttle began operating on the University of Michigan's campus in June 2018. This report focuses on how the researchers collected data and designed the project in order to achieve the project goals of leaning how people react to riding in the shuttles and a how road users interact with the driverless shuttles.
This report evaluates the Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority's "The RIDE" pilot project. The pilot project, which is still in operation today, is an example of a public-private partnership, where the MBTA subsidizes ADA paratransit rides provided by Uber, Lyft, and Curb their traditional ADA paratransit customers. The analysis and modeling in the report is based off of data provided by the MBTA stretching from the pilot's start date in October 2016 through March 2018.
This report categorizes and summarizes efforts that are already underway in cities across the world to rethink curb management, to outline the key takeaways from the one-day workshop that involved city staff from Portland, Seattle, and Vancouver, and to identify major research gaps.
This is an exercise that deconstructs an urban and a suburban streetscape using the Restreet.com participatory design tool. Restreet was created by William Riggs, Mike Boswell and Ryder Ross in 2016 as a code fork from the Code for America project Streetmix. The idea was to democratize the way we plan streets and synthesize that data for policy and decision-making. The streets depicted show right-of-way needs eroding due to the prevalence of autonomous vehicles creating efficiency or the policy decision to do so in advance of their adoption. The final two slides show the submissions from the over 6,000 users since September and the related summary statistics. All suggest that policy that supports traffic calming and lane reductions to support multimodal transportation might be appropriate in the immediate future.
Riggs, Boswell and Ross describe their pilot street design project deploying Streetplan, a version of the opensource tool Streetmix. As part of the City of San Luis Obispo downtown revisioning project, their efforts inform the process, currently underway, of revising the Downtown Vision Concept Plan.
This white paper discusses the forces affecting U.S. passenger travel, the permanence of which is often unclear. We explore travel demand’s relationship with explanatory factors such as economic activity, gas prices, urban form, socio-demographic traits and generational effects, the expanding availability of travel options (including electronic alternatives to travel) and technological innovations in the transportation sector (including the advent of emerging transportation and shared mobility services). We discuss how these factors modify the alternatives available to travelers, the characteristics of each alternative, and the way travelers perceive and evaluate these characteristics.
Currently, little planning is being done to prepare for driverless technology. Actors at multiple levels, however, have tools at their disposal to help ensure that new technology does not come at the expense of the nation’s remaining natural habitats. This Article advocates for a shift in paradigm from policies that are merely anti-car to those that are pro-density, and provides suggestions for both cities and suburban areas for how harness the positive aspects of driverless cars while trying to stem the negative. Planning for density regardless of technology will help to ensure that, for the world of the future, there is actually a world.
Between 1998 and 2005, employment in the U.S. warehousing industry grew at a compound annual growth rate of 22.23%, and the number of establishments increased at compound annual growth rate of 9.48%. Over this same period of time, the price for transportation fuels increased dramatically and became much more volatile. In this paper we examine the microeconomic and macroeconomic forces that have enabled such rapid growth in the warehousing industry. We also analyze structural change through employment and warehouse construction starts data and show that a new breed of warehouse has emerged – the mega distribution center, or mega DC.
This document provides background on micromobility and what it is, answers the question "Who uses shared micromobility?" and identifies current policies and practices.
"This report summarizes the status of twenty-nine partnerships between TNCs and public bodies around the United States designed to improve mobility." The analysis explains when the programs were or are active, if they were modified, the financial structure and performance audits.
This report compares and analyzes the "relative advantages and disadvantages of autonomous and connected large trucks relative to light-duty vehicles."
Autonomous vehicles will have a major impact on parking facility designs in the future. Compared to regular car-parks that have only two rows of vehicles in each island, future car-parks (for autonomous vehicles) can have multiple rows of vehicles stacked behind each other. Although this multi-row layout reduces parking space, it can cause blockage if a certain vehicle is barricaded by other vehicles and cannot leave the facility. To release barricaded vehicles, the car-park operator has to relocate some of the vehicles to create a clear pathway for the blocked vehicle to exit. The extent of vehicle relocation depends on the layout design of the car-park. To find the optimal car-park layout with minimum relocations, we present a mixed-integer non-linear program that treats each island in the car-park as a queuing system. We solve the problem using Benders decomposition for an exact answer and we present a heuristic algorithm to find a reasonable upper-bound of the mathematical model. We show that autonomous vehicle car-parks can decrease the need for parking space by an average of 62% and a maximum of 87%. This revitalization of space that was previously used for parking can be socially beneficial if car-parks are converted into commercial and residential land-uses.
This is a review of what research is saying about the negative impacts of autonomous vehicles are on public health issues specifically.
NYC Transit and MTA bus have a combined fleet of about 5,700 buses for public transportation in New York City. The fleet currently consists of a mix of diesel, hybrid diesel and CNG (compressed natural gas) buses. Electric buses have vastly lower greenhouse gas(GHG) emissions than the current fleet. The MTA will have challenges associated with a changeover to electric buses, but effective planning can make the change nearly invisible to customers. The recommendation of this analysis is that New York City should begin taking steps to convert the bus fleet to all electric.
Connected and fully automated or autonomous vehicles (CAVs) are becoming increasingly viable 23 as a technology and may soon dominate the automotive industry. Once CAVs are sufficiently 24 reliable and affordable, they will gain greater market penetration, generating significant economic 25 ripple effects throughout many industries. This paper synthesizes and expands upon analysis from 26 multiple reports on the economic effects of CAVs across 13 different industries and the overall 27 economy.
This paper models the market potential of a fleet of shared, autonomous, electric vehicles (SAEVs) 20 by employing a multinomial logic mode choice model in an agent-based framework and different 21 fare settings.
Equity is a complex topic – is a bike share system equitable if bikes are available in all neighborhoods, if anyone who wanted to could afford to ride or have a membership, or only if ridership reflects the demographics of the city? In this report, we seek to identify ways for cities and bike share systems to have these conversations with meaningful data. The report is a resource to help cities navigate the range of actions that have been implemented to make bike share systems more equitable, examine successful strategies employed by other cities and systems, and understand how those systems are measuring and articulating their successes (and challenges).
The Chicago metropolitan area has one of the most extensive public transit systems in the United States, yet there are many places in the region where people do not have convenient access to transit service. To address that deficiency, this paper identifies practical ways to give more travel options to people in areas that are underserved by transit, including people who are unable to own or rent a car or have physical limitations that prevent them from driving.
This paper discusses the history of shared mobility within the context of the urban transportation landscape, first in Europe and Asia, and more recently in the Americas, with a specific focus on first- and last-mile connections to public transit. The authors discuss the known impacts of shared mobility modes—carsharing, bikesharing, and ridesharing—on reducing vehicle miles/kilometers traveled (VMT/VKT), greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and modal splits with public transit. The future of shared mobility in the urban transportation landscape is discussed, as mobile technology and public policy continue to evolve to integrate shared mobility with public transit and future automated vehicles.
"The purpose of this report is to provide an overview of the state of automated vehicle (AV) technology in transit. The Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) wishes to know what AV technology is currently available that could be used in transit with an eye towards possible demonstration projects."
This paper describes research undertaken to establish plausible fuel-speed curves (FSC) for hypothetical advanced powertrain vehicles. These FSC are needed to account for the effects of congestion in long-term transportation scenario analysis considering fuel consumption and emissions. The results presented in this paper will assist analysis of the roles that vehicle technology and congestion mitigation can play in reducing fuel consumption and emissions from roadway travel.
This paper examines the suburbanization of warehousing and trucking activity within US metropolitan areas between the 1980s and the present using Gini indices as a measure of concentration. While historical work exists on the relocation of transportation and warehousing activity to suburban locations, there has been little to document the most recent shifts in warehousing and logistics. This research does so via spatial analysis of Economic Census data, finding that while most US metropolitan areas have experienced decentralization in the spatial distribution of freight-related activity, there is also some growth in core counties, indicating that a more complex process is going on than simple suburbanization.
"As e-commerce grows as a percentage of total retail sales, consumers are choosing delivery options with shorter delivery cycles. Not only does this mean that Amazon Prime customers (65 million subscribers in September 2016) can choose Prime Now two-hour deliveries for some high-volume items, it means other retailers are offering same-day deliveries, as are some package delivery companies (United Parcel Service [UPS], Federal Express [FedEx], and United States Postal Service [USPS]) in certain cities. This report reviews how express delivery services now operate, how they are regulated, and how they may affect the state’s transportation system."
"This paper presents findings from a comprehensive travel and residential survey deployed in seven major U.S. cities, in two phases from 2014 to 2016, with a targeted, representative sample of their urban and suburban populations. The purpose of this report is to provide early insight on the adoption of, use, and travel behavior impacts of ride-hailing. The report is structured around three primary topics, key findings of which are highlighted below."
The purpose of the Primer is to describe and document new integrative approaches, guiding principles, and living examples that will serve SMART partner communities. It is also meant to serve businesses, community leaders, transportation practitioners and policymakers who are interested in improving and transforming their transportation systems (and related economies) as whole systems. This Primer aims to contribute to a growing literature of integrative and practical approaches for implementing multi-modal, “next generation” transportation and transportation infrastructure. More broadly, it aims to contribute to advancing livability, sustainability, and economic vitality in communities and city regions of the world through systems-based transportation.
For 50 years, American geography and land use has been centered on the personal car. The three revolutions in vehicle sharing, automation and electrification present new challenges and also great opportunities for land use and transportation planners. Absent policy reform, the three revolutions may contribute to more sprawl, but a sustainable planning approach that supports both higher-density development and lower single-occupant (or zero-occupant) driving can once again put people first rather than their cars.
This University of Washington (UW) study focuses on a strategy to manage TNC driver stops when picking up and dropping off passengers with the aim of improving traffic flow in the South Lake Union (SLU) area. SLU is the site of the main campus for Amazon, the online retail company. The site is known to generate a large number of TNC trips, and Amazon reports high rates of ride-hailing use for employee commutes. This study also found that vehicle picking-up/dropping-off passengers make up a significant share of total vehicle activity in SLU. The center city neighborhood is characterized by multiple construction sites, slow speed limits (25 mph) and heavy vehicle and pedestrian traffic.
"In this chapter I address three commonly misunderstood aspects of vehicle automation: capability, deployment, and connectivity. For each, I identify a myth pervading public discussion, provide a contradictory view common among experts, explain why that expert view is itself incomplete, and finally discuss the legal implications of this nuance. Although there are many more aspects that merit clarification, these three are linked because they suggest a shift in transportation from a product model to a service model, a point with which I conclude."
E‐commerce has become an integral part of Americans’ lives and while it offers many benefits, it also represents forgone sales tax revenue for governments. Using a difference‐in‐differences model, this analysis examines how the Amazon tax affected local sales tax collections in North Carolina and whether that impact has been greater for urban, rural, or tourism‐rich counties. The results suggest that the Amazon tax increased revenues and urban jurisdictions benefit most. This finding is important for practitioners and policymakers as they consider the impact of policy changes, such as the South Dakota v. Wayfair ruling, on revenue capacity and financial management.
This paper presents ten key challenge areas that need to be at the center of automated vehicle discussions across all sectors and stakeholders, along with a glossary of key terms. It is intended to serve as a discussion guide and orientation piece for people entering the conversation from a wide variety of perspectives, including advocacy, public policy, research, injury prevention, and technology developers.
This white paper presents a generalized evaluation framework that can be used for assessing project impacts within the context of transportation-related city projects. In support of this framework, we discuss a selection of metrics and data sources that are needed to evaluate the performance of smart city innovations. We first present a collection of projects and applications from near-term smart city concepts or actual pilot projects underway (i.e., Smart City Challenge, Federal Transit Administration (FTA) Mobility on Demand (MOD) Sandbox, and other pilot projects operating in the regions of Los Angeles, Portland, and San Francisco). These projects are identified and explained in Section 2 of this report. Using these projects as the basis for hypothetical case studies, we present selected metrics that would be necessary to evaluate and monitor the performance of such innovations over time. We then identify the data needs to compute those metrics and further highlight the gaps in known data resources that should be covered to enable their computation. The objective of this effort is to help guide future city planners, policy makers, and practitioners in understanding the design of key metrics 3 and data needs at the outset of a project to better facilitate the establishment of rigorous and thoughtful data collection requirements.
In the last ten years transit use in Southern California has fallen significantly. This report investigates that falling transit use. We define Southern California as the six counties that participate in the Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) – Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, Ventura and Imperial. We examine patterns of transit service and patronage over time and across the region, and consider an array of explanations for falling transit use: declining transit service levels, eroding transit service quality, rising fares, falling fuel prices, the growth of Lyft and Uber, the migration of frequent transit users to outlying neighborhoods with less transit service, and rising vehicle ownership. While all of these factors probably play some role, we conclude that the most significant factor is increased motor vehicle access, particularly among low-income households that have traditionally supplied the region with its most frequent and reliable transit users.
One of the big promises of self-driving vehicles is the idea that autonomous vehicles will liberate people from driving. In this vision of the future, passengers will scan news reports on phones and tablets, pour-over notes and briefings for important meetings, and view videos on their handheld devices. They will reclaim the hours once wasted clinging to a steering wheel. Unless they end up developing a headache or becoming dizzy, drowsy, or nauseated.
The introduction of fully autonomous vehicles will constitute perhaps the largest change to everyday transportation in living memory and is predicted to deliver a wide range of environmental, social and economic benefits. However, the route to full automation is also likely to involve significant challenges, with public attitudes playing an important role in determining the level of success with which the technology is introduced. This report outlines the results of a survey of 233 people measuring current attitudes to autonomous vehicles.
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