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Buffalo has become to first major city to completely remove its outdated minimum parking requirements citywide.
According to the U.S. Census, the average American spends about 26 minutes commuting each direction to work.
The City of Summit, New Jersey partnered with Lyft to reduce commuter need for parking within the city. This partnership expands on a previous partnership with Uber, extending the program for one year. The goal of the partnership is to provide greater flexibility for residents and reduce municipal lot congestion.
Ford will have a fully autonomous vehicle in commercial operation by 2021. Ford's vehicle will not have a steering wheel, gas pedal, or brake pedal, and will operate within geo-fenced areas as part of a ride sharing or ride hailing program.
Many developers are trying to keep their malls relevant as traditional big-box retailers announce store closures. This articles highlights five examples of malls around the U.S. that have plans to reinvent themselves as mixed use and experiential destinations.
This is a survey of 3,000 adults in the top 50 metropolitan statistical areas in the U.S. about the quality of life in their communities.
The report is intended to provide guidance to Australia and New Zealand in planning road changes for the introduction of automated vehicles. Key issues that are discussed in this report include physical infrastructure, digital infrastructure, and road operations. The analysis of each issue includes different possible use cases of automated vehicles and includes discussion of optimal conditions required to support the introduction of automated vehicles.
Credit Suisse predicts that as many as 25% of U.S. malls will close by 2022 due to the rise of e-commerce, discount chains, retail bankruptcies and store closings.
Ride-hailing services like Uber and Lyft are changing how travelers get to the airport. This trend is negatively affecting airports, which depend on parking, rental car, and taxi fees as a primary source of revenue.
“The purpose of this paper is to develop a topological approach to characterizing the MaaS concept in order to: 1) facilitate more meaningful discussions of the MaaS concept, 2) enable the ‘comparison of’ different services, 3) understand MaaS’ requirements and effects in terms of society, business, users/ customers, and technology, and 4) aid in the integration of societal goals.”
“Taking Uber or Lyft to and from work and to run errands might seem more expensive than driving yourself–but in many cases, relying on a ride-hailing service is cheaper than buying and using a car of your own. A new calculator compares both scenarios, and might help you decide to ditch car ownership entirely.”
Sustainable, inclusive, prosperous, and resilient cities depend on transportation that facilitates the safe, efficient, and pollution-free flow of people and goods, while also providing affordable, healthy, and integrated mobility for all people. The pace of technology-driven innovation from the private sector in shared transportation services, vehicles, and networks is rapid, accelerating, and filled with opportunity. At the same time, city streets are a finite and scarce resource.These principles, produced by a working group of international NGOs, are designed to guide urban decision-makers and stakeholders toward the best outcomes for all.
This report summarizes the major assumptions, predictions and forecasts that have been made for autonomous vehicles. It emphasizes their impact and takes focus on the effects it will have on previously immobile people and what it will take to integrate them legislatively.
The goal of this white paper is to consider the impact of AVs on municipal budgets. AVs create a “potential rat’s nest of a budgeting challenge.” This paper seeks to begin the process of untangling that rat’s nest, and provide the foundation for future phases of the project that will consider potential additional revenue sources to fund the infrastructure changes that may come from the integration of AVs as well as land use planning implications.
Residential Preference: the social, environmental, and physical preferences that affect a person or family’s choice of residential location (for our purposes, in relation to the urban core and other amenities offered as a part of living in density) The introduction of autonomous vehicles and the comprehensive integration of E-commerce into the urban and suburban fabric will have a widespread effect on the factors the influence a resident’s location preference.
The invention of the internet introduced a new typology to the marketplace, the online retailer. Omnichannel retail strategies - where a retailer operates through both physical locations and online sales - have become a necessity in today’s market.
Today, warehouses are transforming into massive “mega-distribution centers” located in increasingly suburban areas. However, the rapid delivery expectations of E-commerce will also perpetuate the need for a network of local, smaller-scale supply points.
In order to ease congestion downtown and relieve pressure on parking during the holiday season, the city of Boulder, Colorado engaged in a partnership with Lyft, Uber, and a taxi company zTrip. The pilot project, which ran for 11 weeks, involved the city subsidizing rides for residents of Boulder who travelled downtown using one of the partnership companies. This report presents the motivation, design, operation, and results of the pilot.
The Go Centennial pilot was the first pilot project in the country where a government or transit agency fully subsidized first and last-mile rides provided by a transportation network company (in this case Lyft). The Go Centennial pilot was launched in Centennial, Colorado on August 2016 and ran for six months until February 2017. This final report is one of the most comprehensive evaluations of a TNC partnership pilot, and details the goals, preexisting conditions, and procurement and design of the pilot. The report concludes with a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the pilot and a set of lessons learned and key takeaways.
This is an exercise that deconstructs an urban and a suburban streetscape using the Restreet.com participatory design tool. Restreet was created by William Riggs, Mike Boswell and Ryder Ross in 2016 as a code fork from the Code for America project Streetmix. The idea was to democratize the way we plan streets and synthesize that data for policy and decision-making. The streets depicted show right-of-way needs eroding due to the prevalence of autonomous vehicles creating efficiency or the policy decision to do so in advance of their adoption. The final two slides show the submissions from the over 6,000 users since September and the related summary statistics. All suggest that policy that supports traffic calming and lane reductions to support multimodal transportation might be appropriate in the immediate future.
This book explores the opportunities and challenges of the sharing economy and innovative transportation technologies with regard to urban mobility. Written by government experts, social scientists, technologists and city planners from North America, Europe and Australia, the papers in this book address the impacts of demographic, societal and economic trends and the fundamental changes arising from the increasing automation and connectivity of vehicles, smart communication technologies, multimodal transit services, and urban design.
The mundane automobile is about to disrupt your life. Thanks to rapid advance in mobile robotics, cars are poised to morph into the first mainstream autonomous robots that we will entrust with our lives. After almost a century of failed attempts to automate driving, modern hardware technology, and a new generation of artificial intelligence software called deep learning, are giving cars human0level ability to safely guide themselves through unpredictable environments. This book tells the story of this revolution.
Blog post about AV deployment timelines self-predicted by 11 top auto manufacturers.
"This research explored how these new options could be synergistic with public transit models and detailed the experiences of two transit operators that entered into service delivery partnerships with a transportation network company and a micro- transit operator. Based on a series of interviews and the experiences of these two public agencies, this research provides a set of key takeaways and recommendations for transit operators exploring the potential of partnering with new mobility services such as transportation network companies (e.g., Uber or Lyft) and microtransit (e.g., Bridj or Via)."
With the potential to save nearly 30,000 lives per year in the United States, autonomous vehicles portend the most significant advance in auto safety history by shifting the focus from minimization of post-crash injury to collision prevention. I have delineated the important public health implications of autonomous vehicles and provided a brief analysis of a critically important ethical issue inherent in autonomous vehicle design. The broad expertise, ethical principles, and values of public health should be brought to bear on a wide range of issues pertaining to autonomous vehicles.
The New Mobility Playbook is a set of plays, policies, and strategies that will position Seattle to foster new mobility options while prioritizing safety, equity, affordability, and sustainability in the transportation system.
Williams Goldhagen draws from recent research in cognitive neuroscience and psychology to demonstrate how people’s experiences of the places they build are central to their well-being, their physical health, their communal and social lives, and even their very sense of themselves. From this foundation, Goldhagen presents a powerful case that societies must use this knowledge to rethink what and how they build: the world needs better-designed, healthier environments that address the complex range of human individual and social needs.
Urban innovations company Sidewalk Labs and the Canadian government announced a partnership Tuesday to develop 750 acres along Toronto’s waterfront into what they envision as a high-tech living laboratory for solving urban problems. It would be the largest urban redevelopment project in North America.
As a strategic roadmap, this document does not commit to specific budgets or metrics but serves as a vision and communications document to capture a wide variety of viewpoints into Austin’s mobility future. This roadmap will be incorporated into the larger Austin Strategic Mobility Plan to be finalized and approved at a future date. Critical to the development of the broader Mobility Plan will be an extensive analysis of the resource requirements for implementation of this shared, electric and autonomous vehicle (e-av) Roadmap.
Continuous and dynamic growth in demand for road transport, especially in developing countries, causes increase of greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions. At the same time the emissions of toxic components of exhaust gases harmful to human health and the environment enhance – particulate matter, nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide and others. In particular, GHG emission and increase their concentration in the atmosphere, where road transport is the largest issuer in the transport sector, become one of the most important global problems. So far actions towards reducing energy consumption and emissions have not caused a decrease in global emissions. The aim of authors of this paper is to analyze the potential for AV to reduce GHG emissions from road transport. The analysis includes not only technical and technological issues, but also organizational and in the management of transport demand.
"Connected and automated vehicle (CAV) technologies have the potential to change transportation on a global scale. These technologies could improve safety, significantly alter transportation costs, and change traffic patterns and congestion." This time is now to begin having these conversations about how CAVs may integrate into our cities and the impact they could have on land use.
This report summarizes the major assumptions, predictions and forecasts that have been made for autonomous vehicles. It emphasizes their impact and takes focus on the effects it will have on previously immobile people and what it will take to integrate them legislatively.
This article examines what's driving interest and experimentation in MaaS in cities around the world, outlines the core elements of MaaS and how this concept could evolve, and describes the role of government and the private sector in realizing the benefits MaaS brings.
This Blueprint outlines a vision for cities in a future where automated transportation is both accepted and widespread as part of the built environment. It is a human oriented vision for the potential of city streets, intersections, and networks-one in which automation can serve the goals of safety, equity, public health, and sustainability.
This report, BCG's latest on autonomous vehicles, examines the case for AVs as a cornerstone of the urban mobility revolution, as seen through experience of Boston. It describes transportation challenges, strategic considerations, scenario modeling and simulations, field testing. We hope that leaders in the public and private sectors who are considering nuw urban mobiliy models will benefit from these reflections and recommendations on Boston's experience thus far.
"To gauge the opinions of everyday Americans on this complex and far-reaching topic, the survey presented respondents with four different scenarios relating to automation technologies. Collectively, these scenarios speak to many of the hopes and concerns embedded in the broader debate over automation and its impact on society. The scenarios included: the development of autonomous vehicles that can operate without the aid of a human driver; a future in which robots and computers can perform many of the jobs currently done by human workers; the possibility of fully autonomous robot caregivers for older adults; and the possibility that a computer program could evaluate and select job candidates with no human involvement."
"This paper assesses alternative fuel options for transit buses. We find that all alternative fuel options lead to higher life cycle ownership and external costs than conventional diesel. When external funding is available to pay for 80% of vehicle purchase expenditures (which is usually the case for U.S. transit agencies), BEBs yield large reductions (17–23%) in terms of ownership and external costs compared to diesel."
"As automated vehicle technologies advance, they have the potential to dramatically reduce the loss of life each day in roadway crashes. To support industry innovators and States in the deployment of this technology, while informing and educating the public, and improving roadway safety through the safe introduction of the technology, NHTSA presents Automated Driving Systems: A Vision for Safety. It is an important part of DOT’s multimodal efforts to support the safe introduction of automation technologies. In this document, NHTSA offers a nonregulatory approach to automated vehicle technology safety."
We quantify the importance of early action to tackle urban sprawl. We focus on the long-term nature of infrastructure decisions, specifically local roadways, which can lock in greenhouse gas emissions for decades to come. The location and interconnectedness of local roadways form a near permanent backbone for the future layout of land parcels, buildings, and transportation options. We provide new estimates of the environmental impact of low-connectivity roads, characterized by cul-de-sacs and T-intersections, which we dub street-network sprawl. We find an elasticity of vehicle ownership with respect to street connectivity of –0.15—larger than suggested by previous research. We then apply this estimate to quantify the long-term emissions implications of alternative scenarios for street-network sprawl. On current trends alone, we project vehicle travel and emissions to fall by ∼3.2% over the 2015–2050 period, compared to a scenario where sprawl plateaus at its 1994 peak. Concerted policy efforts to increase street connectivity could more than triple these reductions to ∼8.8% by 2050. Longer-term reductions over the 2050–2100 period are more speculative, but could be more than 50% greater than those achieved by 2050. The longer the timescale over which mitigation efforts are considered, the more important it becomes to address the physical form of the built environment.
Local governments, municipal planning organizations, and transit agencies are understandably circumspect in their actions to regulate autonomous vehicles. Policymakers must strike a delicate balance between crafting forward-thinking regulations and being so quick-to-act that decisions are rendered obsolete by the changing marketplace. In this case, however, it is crucial that metropolitan actors do not fall behind the wave of technological progress—now is the moment to envision their ideal land use and transportation scenarios.
This Electric Vehicle Strategy focuses on electrification of the public transit system, shared vehicles and the private automobiles that remain in use, which is one of many strategies the City is taking to reduce carbon emissions from the transportation sector. This strategy also seeks to maximize the benefits of air quality and affordability for low-income residents and parts of Portland that are the most dependent on private vehicles.
This report examines the impact of TNC growth on traffic conditions in the Manhattan Central Business District (CBD), defined as 60 Street to the Battery, river to river. Using newly available data on TNC trips, the report presents a more detailed analysis of CBD traffic conditions than has been possible previously, isolating the impact of TNC growth in the Manhattan CBD during the most congested part of the day -- weekdays between 8 a.m. and 7 p.m.
The researcher examined six jurisdictions: three in Canada and in from the United States. In helping frame the issue for B.C. and—more specifically— the Vancouver metropolitan area context, the researcher conducted primary research to understand the accessibility challenges in the regional context and to help frame the topic of accessibility within the for-hire sector.
This report presents findings from a detailed analysis of the growth of app-based ride services in New York City, their impacts on traffic, travel patterns and vehicle mileage since 2013, and implications for policy makers. The analysis utilizes trip and mileage data that are uniquely available in New York City, providing a detailed and comprehensive look at the expansion of app-based ride services and their impact on critical City goals for mobility, economic growth and environmental sustainability.
The news talks about Amazon expand their warehouses (and other facilities) across 382 metropolitan areas in US and how the supply chain may impact local development.
To gain a deeper understanding of retailers’ focus, concerns and investment plans, Zebra conducted a global research study across a wide spectrum of retail segments, including: specialty stores, department stores, apparel merchants, supermarkets, electronics, home improvement and drugstore chains. The results of this study are shared in this 2017 Retail Vision Study.
This report compares and analyzes the "relative advantages and disadvantages of autonomous and connected large trucks relative to light-duty vehicles."
Autonomous vehicles will have a major impact on parking facility designs in the future. Compared to regular car-parks that have only two rows of vehicles in each island, future car-parks (for autonomous vehicles) can have multiple rows of vehicles stacked behind each other. Although this multi-row layout reduces parking space, it can cause blockage if a certain vehicle is barricaded by other vehicles and cannot leave the facility. To release barricaded vehicles, the car-park operator has to relocate some of the vehicles to create a clear pathway for the blocked vehicle to exit. The extent of vehicle relocation depends on the layout design of the car-park. To find the optimal car-park layout with minimum relocations, we present a mixed-integer non-linear program that treats each island in the car-park as a queuing system. We solve the problem using Benders decomposition for an exact answer and we present a heuristic algorithm to find a reasonable upper-bound of the mathematical model. We show that autonomous vehicle car-parks can decrease the need for parking space by an average of 62% and a maximum of 87%. This revitalization of space that was previously used for parking can be socially beneficial if car-parks are converted into commercial and residential land-uses.
Wondering what is happening in legislation across the country? This report is updated as of 2017 as to what different states are doing to prepare for the arrival of Autonomous Vehicles.
Experts predict Amazon will use the Whole Foods stores, in part, as hubs for grocery pick-up and delivery, helping Amazon resolve the “last mile” dilemma." Overall, it should create opportunity in real estate but take more strategy.
"Here we present a unique long-term (decadal) record of CO2 mole fractions from five sites across Utah’s metropolitan Salt Lake Valley. Four state-of-the-art global-scale emission inventories also have a nonlinear relationship with population density across the city; however, in contrast to our observations, they all have nearly constant emissions over time. Our results indicate that decadal scale changes in urban CO2 emissions are detectable through monitoring networks and constitute a valuable approach to evaluate emission inventories and studies of urban carbon cycles."
This resolution by the Governor of Washington speaks support for the testing of autonomous vehicles in the state of Washington.
This report estimates that by 2030, a substantial share of the 175 million Americans who live in the nation's largest cities will turn to SAEVs, cutting transportation costs by nearly 50%, reclaiming time instead of losing hours a day to traffic and putting up with all the expense and hassle of urban automobile ownership. SAEV fleets will account for nearly 25% of all auto passenger miles traveled in the US by 2030. Such a change will have an enormous impact on health, safety, and quality of life in cities: Traffic accidents and fatalities will be reduced by nearly two-thirds. Pollution will be drastically curtailed. Cities can repurpose millions of square feet once used for parking to new green spaces or commercial uses while securing more affordable mobility and accessibility for elderly, disabled, and low-income people.
This report, BCG's latest on AVs, examines the case for AVs as a cornerstone of the urban mobility revolution, as seen through the experience of Boston. It describes transportation challenges, strategic considerations, scenario modeling and simulations, and field testing.
"This paper identifies three promising applications of new mobility services by public transit agencies, and presents economic, social, and environmental modeling that illustrate the value of such partnerships to mass transit systems."
On May 10, 2017, Mayor William Peduto charged 120 National Summit on Design & Urban Mobility delegates with the following challenge: “we must develop and carry-out a new social compact for mobility in cities. Now is the time to address mobility to ensure that we serve and support core community values of equity, inclusiveness, sustainability, and collective advancement. A social compact with shared and autonomous mobility providers ensures that these services do good for communities while these businesses do well in cities.
Connected and fully automated or autonomous vehicles (CAVs) are becoming increasingly viable 23 as a technology and may soon dominate the automotive industry. Once CAVs are sufficiently 24 reliable and affordable, they will gain greater market penetration, generating significant economic 25 ripple effects throughout many industries. This paper synthesizes and expands upon analysis from 26 multiple reports on the economic effects of CAVs across 13 different industries and the overall 27 economy.
This doctoral dissertation analyzes the impacts of ridesourcing on several areas of transportation including: efficiency in terms of distance Vehicles Miles Traveled (VMT) versus Passenger Miles Traveled (PMT) – and travel times, mode replacement, VMT increase, parking, transportation equity, and travel behavior.
Retail in the U.S. is going through some hardships. There is too much and the shopping trip is the same each time you go. Millennial's are putting retail into a head spin wanting more, quicker and for better prices with less hassle. For these retailer sot keep up with the wants and needs of it's customer base, they're going to have to make some changes.
"This Mobility Hub Features Catalog is a resource for regional agencies, local jurisdictions, transit operators, and private service providers as they collaborate to design and implement mobility hubs around the region. It describes the kinds of services, amenities, and technologies that can work together to make it easier for people to connect to transit, while also providing them with more transportation options overall. These mobility hub features may include various transit station improvements such as enhanced waiting areas with landscaping and lighting, complimentary WiFi and real-time travel information; wider sidewalks, pedestrian lighting and trees for shade; bike paths, designated bike lanes, and bike parking options; dedicated bus lanes and supporting signal improvements; service facilities for shared cars, scooters, and electric vehicles; smart parking technology; and more. Each feature can be tailored to the unique needs of an individual community."
"Beyond Mobility is about prioritizing the needs and aspirations of people and the creation of great places. This is as important, if not more important, than expediting movement. A stronger focus on accessibility and place creates better communities, environments, and economies. Rethinking how projects are planned and designed in cities and suburbs needs to occur at multiple geographic scales, from micro-designs (such as parklets), corridors (such as road-diets), and city-regions (such as an urban growth boundary). It can involve both software (a shift in policy) and hardware (a physical transformation). Moving beyond mobility must also be socially inclusive, a significant challenge in light of the price increases that typically result from creating higher quality urban spaces."
This Strategic Plan is designed to help the East-West Gateway Council of Governments (EWG) to better position itself to prepare for emerging transportation technologies in its planning and investment decision making processes.
This article discusses the changes that will be necessary once AVs hit our streets. The changes in insurance policies, jobs, land use, etc. will change our societal norms.
The questionable acquisition of Jet.com by Walmart last year has seemed to pay off, this article explains the purchase and their success since.
Amazon agreed to buy the upscale grocery chain Whole Foods for $13.4 billion, in a deal that will instantly transform the company that pioneered online shopping into a merchant with physical outposts in hundreds of neighborhoods across the country.
The 2017 Community and Transportation Preferences Survey echoes many of the major findings from the previous surveys. Residents in the fifty top metropolitan areas continue to be split on what they look for in a neighborhood. A small majority prefer the idea of a walkable community and more alternatives to driving, but suburban living remains highly attractive to a sizable portion of the community.
Most of today’s retailers and their supply chain advisors understand the shift in retail sales to the online channel but, for many years, the inclusion of gasoline, groceries, and automobile sales in U.S. retail sales numbers masked the true extent of eCommerce penetration. This is a blog summary of a longer report.
This paper discusses the current and future state of AVs, and the implications for policy at the federal, state, and local levels. It does not intend to summarize all the research nor provide new analysis of the potential implications of AVs. The goal is to provide concrete and substantive recommendations for policymakers in order to responsibly deploy AVs on public roads.
Nordstrom has officially opened its first store without inventory, testing a new format for the department store chain called Nordstrom Local.
This article is an introduction to how AVs may be able to service the general public and become a part of our transit systems.
"As e-commerce grows as a percentage of total retail sales, consumers are choosing delivery options with shorter delivery cycles. Not only does this mean that Amazon Prime customers (65 million subscribers in September 2016) can choose Prime Now two-hour deliveries for some high-volume items, it means other retailers are offering same-day deliveries, as are some package delivery companies (United Parcel Service [UPS], Federal Express [FedEx], and United States Postal Service [USPS]) in certain cities. This report reviews how express delivery services now operate, how they are regulated, and how they may affect the state’s transportation system."
"This paper presents findings from a comprehensive travel and residential survey deployed in seven major U.S. cities, in two phases from 2014 to 2016, with a targeted, representative sample of their urban and suburban populations. The purpose of this report is to provide early insight on the adoption of, use, and travel behavior impacts of ride-hailing. The report is structured around three primary topics, key findings of which are highlighted below."
For 50 years, American geography and land use has been centered on the personal car. The three revolutions in vehicle sharing, automation and electrification present new challenges and also great opportunities for land use and transportation planners. Absent policy reform, the three revolutions may contribute to more sprawl, but a sustainable planning approach that supports both higher-density development and lower single-occupant (or zero-occupant) driving can once again put people first rather than their cars.
"The aim of this paper is to show how TNCs could replace public transportation in the United States if subsidized at the same level of transit agencies."
EPA webpage briefly outlining the US emissions facts in the transportation field.
Using data from the 2010 to 2014 merged American Community Survey released by the U.S. Census Bureau, this paper estimates the labor market impact of jobs likely to be lost with a rapid transition to autonomous vehicles. The report finds that certain population groups and areas of the country would be disproportionately affected. Finally, we call for policymakers to take immediate steps to offset the potential for harmful labor disruptions.
With so much transportation funding going toward highways, it’s tempting to support any transit investment as a step in the right direction. But not all transit investments will produce service that helps people get where they need to go. To make transit a useful travel option that people want to ride, says TransitCenter, there are three basic goals that officials and advocates should strive for: speed, frequency and reliability, walkability and accessibility.
At 92 million strong, millennials are an economic and demographic powerhouse. They’re also different from every preceding generation since they’ve grown up with personal computers and smartphones. They’re used to a connected world in which information, goods and services are readily available at the click of a button. This millennial mindset is shaping how the tenants of tomorrow are looking for space to live, work and shop and what they expect. In this whitepaper we break down the three most important millennial trends and what they mean for commercial real estate.
This paper provides examples of how cities have successfully changed curb use to support transit. It is focused on the types of busy, store-lined streets where high-ridership transit lines often struggle with reliability. These key curbside management strategies support reliable transit and safer streets in one of two ways: either by directly making room for transit, or supporting transit projects by better managing the many demands on the urban curb.
“Zombie malls,” as they are known, are increasingly dotting the suburban landscape. The lights are on, the escalators keep moving, but their purpose in life has gone. Burlington Center has less than 20 tenants — including a Sears and a Foot Locker — but once had more than 100.
In this article, we set out to collect the facts and compile CEO quotes to determine the self-driving timelines of the world’s 11 largest automakers. Many businesses and industries will be impacted by the impending transitions in autonomous vehicle tech, and our aim is to put the most relevant facts together for business leaders and auto enthusiasts alike.
A very brief introduction to the impacts that may come with autonomous cars in the future.
Ever since Amazon began selling books online in 1995, retailers — and plenty of other commentators — have been asking what role, if any, physical stores might play in the retail arena. Some have gone so far as to predict the ultimate demise of stores, and others expound the virtues of various hybrid omnichannel solutions. This report explores where things stand in retail in 2017.
We are on the cusp of one of the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruptions of transportation in history. By 2030, within 10 years of regulatory approval of autonomous vehicles (AVs), 95% of U.S. passenger miles traveled will be served by on-demand autonomous electric vehicles owned by fleets, not individuals, in a new business model we call “transportas-a-service” (TaaS). The TaaS disruption will have enormous implications across the transportation and oil industries, decimating entire portions of their value chains, causing oil demand and prices to plummet, and destroying trillions of dollars in investor value — but also creating trillions of dollars in new business opportunities, consumer surplus and GDP growth.
In the 1960s, countercultural icon Timothy Leary popularized the phrase, "turn on, tune in, drop out," to describe the idea of using LSD and other psychedelic drugs to detach from society and achieve a higher level of thinking. Later in his life, he argued that the personal computer was the "LSD of the 1990s"—at that time having no inkling how much automation and augmented reality would play in our society, or how autonomous vehicles might change the way we connect with others. Might automated vehicles (AVs) be one of the ways that humans "tune in, turn on" and disconnect for the next few decades?
The purpose of this report is to provide information on TNC activity in San Francisco, in order to help the San Francisco County Transportation Authority (Transportation Authority) fulfill its role as the Congestion Management Agency for San Francisco County. The report is also intended to inform the Transportation Authority board which is comprised of the members of the San Francisco Board of Supervisors, as well as state and local policy-makers in other arenas, and the general public, on the size, location and time-of-day characteristics of the TNC market in San Francisco.