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Vehicle Miles/Kilometers Traveled (VMT/VKT)
"This paper will address current progress and direction for autonomous vehicles, what this could mean for the future of transport and the possible analytical approaches to addressing these impacts."
This report merges analyses of distribution models, consumer behavior, data, and insight from trucking industry experts to advise on shifting retail logistics and supply chains. It will provide trucking industry stakeholders with a better understanding of how to adapt to the opportunities and challenges of e-commerce.
This report examines how TNCs contributed to increased roadway congestion in San Francisco between 2010 and 2016 relative to other factors such as population and employment growth, and transportation system changes.
This paper explores the impacts of AVs on car trips using a case study of Victoria, Australia, specifically studying the potential increase in new trips and trip diversions from other modes such as public transport.
This survey provides an inventory of daily travel in the US including demographic data on households, people, vehicles, and detailed information on daily travel by all modes of transportation and for all purposes.
The introduction of shared autonomous vehicles (SAVs) in cities could potentially increase the number of vehicle miles traveled (VMT). The implementation of dynamic ride-sharing (DRS) systems could limit this increase and potentially result in a net reduction in VMT.
Ride-hailing services like Uber and Lyft are changing the way that people move around cities, affecting transit use, active transportation and congestion. Due to the rapid rise in popularity and lack of available data, city and transportation planners have been limited in their ability to make long-term decisions about transportation infrastructure.
This article studies the relationship between gasoline consumption and urban design patterns by comparing 32 principal cities from around the world. The purpose is to evaluate physical planning policies for conserving transportation energy in urban areas.
This article examines the relationship between urban form and vehicle miles travelled, especially as it relates to last mile goods delivery and greenhouse gas emissions.
Despite a growing economy, there has been a decrease in the average miles driven due in part to alternate modes of transportation and more opportunities to work and shop remotely.
"A New York judge has struck down a proposal to limit the time Uber and Lyft drivers can cruise around Manhattan without carrying riders."
The town of Innisfil in Ontario, Canada has partnered with Uber in place of public transit. Low density development drove the town to choose subsidizing Uber over creating a public transit system due to the perceived cost of both. However, the amount Innisfil spent subsidizing Uber rides has already exceeded the amount they estimated it would cost to create a public transit system. Experts question the partnership, citing environmental and economic problems.
This report examines several scenarios of connected and automated vehicle (CAV) adoption rates and studies their potential impacts on fuel efficiency and consumer costs. The results found massive uncertainties in potential long-term energy impacts from fully automated and highly connected vehicles in the high adoption rate scenario and similar uncertainties in the other scenarios. The authors outline the gaps in existing research and suggest routes for further research in order of importance.
TNCs provide on-demand mobility service that either complements or competes with transit services. This article studies how TNCs influence changes in urban travel patterns as well as energy and environmental implications.
This article is a literature review of the definition and effects of urban sprawl for the purpose of implementing planning policies that discourage sprawl.
“Fehr & Peers was engaged by Lyft and Uber to determine their combined Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) in six metropolitan regions in September 2018 and compare that value to approximate total VMT in each area for the same period.”
The report is intended to provide guidance to Australia and New Zealand in planning road changes for the introduction of automated vehicles. Key issues that are discussed in this report include physical infrastructure, digital infrastructure, and road operations. The analysis of each issue includes different possible use cases of automated vehicles and includes discussion of optimal conditions required to support the introduction of automated vehicles.
This is a fact sheet suitable for use as a printed handout on Urbanism Next's topline research findings regarding TNCs.
The purpose of this report is to analyze potential impacts and offer recommendations for the cities of Gresham and Eugene, OR, to understand the potential impacts of new mobility technologies – with an emphasis on autonomous vehicles (AVs) – and prepare a policy and programmatic response. While Gresham and Eugene are case studies, it provides mid-sized communities information on how new mobility services could impact their communities and what they can do about it, from broad strategies to specific policy responses. While this work focuses on the various new mobility and goods delivery services that currently exist, the framework that is discussed here is also applicable to emerging technologies that haven’t yet been introduced, such as autonomous vehicles (AVs).
"Private Transit: Existing Services and Emerging Directions provides an overview and taxonomy of private transit services in the United States, reviews their present scope and operating characteristics, presents three case studies, and discusses ways private transit services may affect the communities in which they operate. This report is intended to help inform public transit agencies, local governments, potential service operators and sponsors, and other stakeholders about private transit services and ways these services address transportation needs in a variety of operating environments."
The transportation sector accounts for the largest portion of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions compared to all other sectors, and GHGs are once again on the rise. At the same time, new mobility technologies are being introduced and fully autonomous vehicles (AVs) are anticipated to be deployed, at least to varying extents, within 5-10 years. (Waymo, Google’s self-driving project, is already operating a limited robotaxi service in Phoenix, AZ with a fleet of AVs.) AVs have the potential to improve safety, reduce congestion, and increase mobility— but they could also increase congestion, increase vehicle miles/ kilometers traveled (VMT/VKT), and erode transit, walk, and bike mode share, exacerbating existing conditions. The cities of Portland, OR; Seattle, WA; and Vancouver, BC have adopted climate action plans with the goal of dramatically reducing GHG emissions. This policy brief is intended to help the three cities better understand how AVs may help or hinder them in achieving their goals, and what recommended actions to take at this critical moment in time.
Autonomous vehicles (AVs) are a near future reality and the implications of AVs on city development and urban form, while potentially widespread and dramatic, are not well understood. This report describes the first order impacts, or the broad ways that the form and function of cities are already being impacted by forces of change including—but not limited to—AVs and related technologies.
This document includes the interests of most, if not all, major issues surrounding the impact AVs will have on our communities, government, and environment once they land.
This white paper discusses the forces affecting U.S. passenger travel, the permanence of which is often unclear. We explore travel demand’s relationship with explanatory factors such as economic activity, gas prices, urban form, socio-demographic traits and generational effects, the expanding availability of travel options (including electronic alternatives to travel) and technological innovations in the transportation sector (including the advent of emerging transportation and shared mobility services). We discuss how these factors modify the alternatives available to travelers, the characteristics of each alternative, and the way travelers perceive and evaluate these characteristics.
"This Future of Mobility White Paper is intended to inform and guide policymakers and modelers developing the next iteration of the CTP –CTP 2050 –by presenting updated descriptions and analyses of developments impacting California’s transportation system."
"Connected and automated vehicle (CAV) technologies have the potential to change transportation on a global scale. These technologies could improve safety, significantly alter transportation costs, and change traffic patterns and congestion." This time is now to begin having these conversations about how CAVs may integrate into our cities and the impact they could have on land use.
Although recent studies of Shared Autonomous Vehicles (SAVs) have explored the economic costs and environmental impacts of this technology, little is known about how SAVs can change urban forms, especially by reducing the demand for parking. This study estimates the potential impact of SAV system on urban parking demand under different system operation scenarios with the help of an agent-based simulation model. The simulation results indicate that we may be able to eliminate up to 90% of parking demand for clients who adopt the system, at a low market penetration rate of 2%. The results also suggest that different SAV operation strategies and client's preferences may lead to different spatial distribution of urban parking demand.
Inclusive of manufacturing, transportation to the US, and the use phase, this study looks at the environmental impact of e-scooters compared to the use of alternative modes of transportation.
This report combines recently published research and newly available data from a national travel survey and other sources to create the first detailed profile of TNC ridership, users and usage. The report then discusses how TNC and microtransit services can benefit urban transportation, how policy makers can respond to traffic and transit impacts, and the implications of current experience for planning and implementation of shared autonomous vehicles in major American cities.
We quantify the importance of early action to tackle urban sprawl. We focus on the long-term nature of infrastructure decisions, specifically local roadways, which can lock in greenhouse gas emissions for decades to come. The location and interconnectedness of local roadways form a near permanent backbone for the future layout of land parcels, buildings, and transportation options. We provide new estimates of the environmental impact of low-connectivity roads, characterized by cul-de-sacs and T-intersections, which we dub street-network sprawl. We find an elasticity of vehicle ownership with respect to street connectivity of –0.15—larger than suggested by previous research. We then apply this estimate to quantify the long-term emissions implications of alternative scenarios for street-network sprawl. On current trends alone, we project vehicle travel and emissions to fall by ∼3.2% over the 2015–2050 period, compared to a scenario where sprawl plateaus at its 1994 peak. Concerted policy efforts to increase street connectivity could more than triple these reductions to ∼8.8% by 2050. Longer-term reductions over the 2050–2100 period are more speculative, but could be more than 50% greater than those achieved by 2050. The longer the timescale over which mitigation efforts are considered, the more important it becomes to address the physical form of the built environment.
"Our City of the Future: Technology and Mobility report is meant to help city leaders understand, imagine and plan for the coming changes in the urban environment that will affect how we all move from one place to another."
Between 1998 and 2005, employment in the U.S. warehousing industry grew at a compound annual growth rate of 22.23%, and the number of establishments increased at compound annual growth rate of 9.48%. Over this same period of time, the price for transportation fuels increased dramatically and became much more volatile. In this paper we examine the microeconomic and macroeconomic forces that have enabled such rapid growth in the warehousing industry. We also analyze structural change through employment and warehouse construction starts data and show that a new breed of warehouse has emerged – the mega distribution center, or mega DC.
This report examines the impact of TNC growth on traffic conditions in the Manhattan Central Business District (CBD), defined as 60 Street to the Battery, river to river. Using newly available data on TNC trips, the report presents a more detailed analysis of CBD traffic conditions than has been possible previously, isolating the impact of TNC growth in the Manhattan CBD during the most congested part of the day -- weekdays between 8 a.m. and 7 p.m.
"Our primary focus is travel related energy consumption and emissions, since potential lifecycle impacts are generally smaller in magnitude. We explore the net effects of automation on emissions through several illustrative scenarios, finding that automation might plausibly reduce road transport GHG emissions and energy use by nearly half – or nearly double them – depending on which effects come to dominate."
Concerns over rising fuel prices and greenhouse-gas emissions have prompted research into the influences of built environments on travel, notably vehicle miles traveled (VMT). Accessibility to basic employment has comparatively modest effects, as do size of urbanized area, and rail-transit supplies and usage. Nevertheless, urban planning and city design should be part of any strategic effort to shrink the environmental footprint of the urban transportation sector.
"Carsharing exemplifies a growing trend towards service provision displacing ownership of capital goods. We developed a model to quantify the impact of carsharing on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The study took into account different types of households and their trip characteristics. The analysis considers five factors by which carsharing can impact GHG emissions: transportation mode change, fleet vintage, vehicle optimization, more efficient drive trains within each vehicle type, and trip aggregation. Access to carsharing has already been shown to lead some users to relinquish ownership of their personal vehicle. We find that even without a reduction in vehicle-kilometers traveled the change in characteristics of the vehicles used in carsharing fleets can reduce GHGs by more than 30%. Shifting some trips to public transit provides a further 10%–20% reduction in GHGs"
"In the United States, road infrastructure funding is declining due to an increase in fuel efficiency and the non-adjustment of fuel taxes to inflation. Legislation to tax plug-in vehicles has been proposed or implemented in several states. This paper assesses (1) the magnitude of the decline in federal fuel tax revenue caused by plug-in vehicles and (2) quantifies the revenue that could be generated from a federal plug in vehicle registration fee.
Different business models of AVs, including Shared AVs (SAVs) and Private AVs (PAVs), will lead to significantly different changes in regional vehicle inventory and Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT). Most prior studies have already explored the impact of SAVs on vehicle ownership and VMT generation. Limited understanding has been gained regarding vehicle ownership reduction and unoccupied VMT generation potentials in the era of PAVs. Motivated by such research gap, this study develops models to examine how much vehicle ownership reduction can be achieved once private conventional vehicles are replaced by AVs and the spatial distribution of unoccupied VMT accompanied with the vehicle reduction. The models are implemented using travel survey and synthesized trip profile from Atlanta Metropolitan Area. The results show that more than 18% of the households can reduce vehicles, while maintaining the current travel patterns. This can be translated into a 9.5% reduction in private vehicles in the study region. Meanwhile, 29.8 unoccupied VMT will be induced per day per reduced vehicles. A majority of the unoccupied VMT will be loaded on interstate highways and expressways and the largest percentage inflation in VMT will occur on minor local roads. The results can provide implications for evolving trends in household vehicles uses and the location of dedicated AV lanes in the PAV dominated future.
This paper evaluates the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission impacts that result from individuals participating in carsharing organizations within North America. The authors conducted an online survey with members of major carsharing organizations and evaluated the change in annual household emissions (e.g., impact) of respondents that joined carsharing. The results show that a majority of households joining carsharing are increasing their emissions by gaining access to automobiles.
This year’s report builds on that same contextual foundation with updated travel trend charts and speed maps. Since 2015, the number of residents, jobs, and annual tourists have continued to grow. Even as the City encourages and facilitates the use of high performance modes, we recognize that the demands on our ?nite street network are only growing and our roadways are frequently functioning at capacity.
This report estimates that by 2030, a substantial share of the 175 million Americans who live in the nation's largest cities will turn to SAEVs, cutting transportation costs by nearly 50%, reclaiming time instead of losing hours a day to traffic and putting up with all the expense and hassle of urban automobile ownership. SAEV fleets will account for nearly 25% of all auto passenger miles traveled in the US by 2030. Such a change will have an enormous impact on health, safety, and quality of life in cities: Traffic accidents and fatalities will be reduced by nearly two-thirds. Pollution will be drastically curtailed. Cities can repurpose millions of square feet once used for parking to new green spaces or commercial uses while securing more affordable mobility and accessibility for elderly, disabled, and low-income people.
This article summarizes the history of how Level of Service (LOS) became tied to the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) and the motivations for the current shift away from LOS toward Vehicles Miles Traveled (VMT) as an environmental review point for new construction projects.
This is a review of what research is saying about the negative impacts of autonomous vehicles are on public health issues specifically.
Focus on emissions and energy efficiency has long been focused on vehicles and improving their efficiency. This article discusses the option that hasn't been utilized as much by policy markers, to just limit the amount people drive.
Connected and fully automated or autonomous vehicles (CAVs) are becoming increasingly viable 23 as a technology and may soon dominate the automotive industry. Once CAVs are sufficiently 24 reliable and affordable, they will gain greater market penetration, generating significant economic 25 ripple effects throughout many industries. This paper synthesizes and expands upon analysis from 26 multiple reports on the economic effects of CAVs across 13 different industries and the overall 27 economy.
This paper models the market potential of a fleet of shared, autonomous, electric vehicles (SAEVs) 20 by employing a multinomial logic mode choice model in an agent-based framework and different 21 fare settings.
"AVs are already being road tested in several states and will be available for sale within five to ten years. They promise to make automobile travel safer and more efficient, and to dramatically change transportation planning and engineering. This paper assesses the most likely effect of AVs on traffic generation and highway capacity and congestion over time as AVs come to represent a greater percentage of the vehicles on the road."
This doctoral dissertation analyzes the impacts of ridesourcing on several areas of transportation including: efficiency in terms of distance Vehicles Miles Traveled (VMT) versus Passenger Miles Traveled (PMT) – and travel times, mode replacement, VMT increase, parking, transportation equity, and travel behavior.
This paper discusses the history of shared mobility within the context of the urban transportation landscape, first in Europe and Asia, and more recently in the Americas, with a specific focus on first- and last-mile connections to public transit. The authors discuss the known impacts of shared mobility modes—carsharing, bikesharing, and ridesharing—on reducing vehicle miles/kilometers traveled (VMT/VKT), greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and modal splits with public transit. The future of shared mobility in the urban transportation landscape is discussed, as mobile technology and public policy continue to evolve to integrate shared mobility with public transit and future automated vehicles.
In this study, we present exploratory evidence of how “ridesourcing” services (app-based, on-demand ride services like Uber and Lyft) are used in San Francisco. We explore who uses ridesourcing and for what reasons, how the ridesourcing market compares to that of traditional taxis, and how ridesourcing impacts the use of public transit and overall vehicle travel. In spring 2014, 380 completed intercept surveys were collected from three ridesourcing “hot spots” in San Francisco. We compare survey results with matched-pair taxi trip data and results of a previous taxi user survey. We also compare travel times for ridesourcing and taxis with those for public transit.
"This research shows that public transportation (in its current form) will only remain economically competitive where demand can be bundled to larger units. In particular, this applies to dense urban areas, where public transportation can be offered at lower prices than autonomous taxis (even if pooled) and private cars. Wherever substantial bundling is not possible, shared and pooled vehicles serve travel demand more efficiently."
"Automated driving technologies are currently penetrating the market, and the coming fully autonomous cars will have far-reaching, yet largely unknown, implications. A critical unknown is the impact on traveler behavior, which in turn impacts sustainability, the economy, and well-being. Most behavioral studies, to date, either focus on safety and human factors (driving simulators; test beds), assume travel behavior implications (microsimulators; network analysis), or ask about hypothetical scenarios that are unfamiliar to the subjects (stated preference studies). Here we present a different approach, which is to use a naturalistic experiment to project people into a world of self-driving cars. We mimic potential life with a privately-owned self-driving vehicle by providing 60 h of free chauffeur service for each participating household for use within a 7-day period. We seek to understand the changes in travel behavior as the subjects adjust their travel and activities during the chauffeur week when, as in a self-driving vehicle, they are explicitly relieved of the driving task. In this first pilot application, our sample consisted of 13 subjects from the San Francisco Bay area, drawn from three cohorts: millennials, families, and retirees. We tracked each subject’s travel for 3 weeks (the chauffeur week, 1 week before and 1 week after) and conducted surveys and interviews. During the chauffeur week, we observed sizable increases in vehicle-miles traveled and number of trips, with a more pronounced increase in trips made in the evening and for longer distances and a substantial proportion of “zero-occupancy” vehicle-miles traveled."
This paper presents an analysis of the data and frames it in a broader context. It concludes with a description of FTA actions that address climate change.
"This report examines the changes that might result from the large-scale uptake of a shared and self-driving fleet of vehicles in a mid-sized European city. The study explores two different self-driving vehicle concepts, for which we have coined the terms 'TaxiBot' and 'AutoVot'. TaxiBots are self-driving cars that can be shared simultaneously by several passengers. AutoVots pick-up and drop-off single passengers sequentially. We had two premises for this study: First, the urban mobility system upgrade with a fleet of TaxiBots and AutoVots should deliver the same trips as today in terms of origin, destination and timing. Second, it should also replace all car and bus trips. The report looks at impacts on car fleet size, volume of travel and parking requirements over two different time scales: a 24-hour average and for peak hours only."
This chapter is intended for the reader who wants to understand what vehicle automation is, its main research questions, and what are its main implications. We also provide guidance on the methods that have been used or could be used to assess its impacts, hence allowing future research on this topic.
Through a review of long-range transportation plans and interviews with planners, this article examines how large metropolitan planning organizations are preparing for autonomous vehicles. In just a few years, the prospect of commercially available self-driving cars and trucks has gone from a futurist fantasy to a likely near-term reality. However, uncertainties about the new technology and its relationship to daily investment decisions have kept mention of self-driving cars out of nearly all long-range transportation plans.
The forces that will influence the environmental impacts of large-scale AV adoption are identified to help determine necessary future research directions. It is too early to determine which of these forces will dominate the system and dictate whether AV adoption will result in net reductions or increases in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The environmental research community must develop a better understanding of the disruptive forces of AVs to help develop a strategy to reduce transportation emissions. Particular emphasis is needed regarding how AVs will be adopted and used, as these patterns may ultimately dictate the environmental impacts of AVs. Without better integration of engineering, social science, and planning disciplines to model future adoption scenarios, important opportunities to steer markets toward sustainable outcomes will be lost.
"This paper presents findings from a comprehensive travel and residential survey deployed in seven major U.S. cities, in two phases from 2014 to 2016, with a targeted, representative sample of their urban and suburban populations. The purpose of this report is to provide early insight on the adoption of, use, and travel behavior impacts of ride-hailing. The report is structured around three primary topics, key findings of which are highlighted below."
When ride-hailing services stormed into cities in the 2010s they offered a grand utopian promise: By tapping into America’s vast reservoir of idle vehicles, on-demand, app-based rides would reduce the need for personal car ownership and ultimately remove cars from the road. But now, less than a decade into this experiment, the industry is ‘fessing up. The ride-hailing giants released a joint analysis showing that their vehicles are responsible for significant portions of VMT in six major urban centers. Still, Uber and Lyft’s combined share is still vastly outstripped by personal vehicles.
New York City’s cap on the number of for-hire vehicles that can operate on its streets will continue—and a new provision will, in theory, limit the amount of time FHVs can spend idling without passengers.
"As a guide for planners and policymakers, the objective of this thesis is to develop a strong foundation for anticipating the potential impacts resulting from advancements in vehicle automation. To establish the foundation, this thesis uses a robust qualitative methodology, coupling a review of literature on the potential advantages and disadvantages of vehicle automation and lessons from past innovations in transportation, with recent trends of the Millennial Generation, carsharing services, and a series of interviews with thought-leaders in automation, planning, policymaking, transportation, and aviation. From the perspective of understanding the bigger picture, this thesis developed a proposed future scenario of vehicle automation in the next five to ten years that is used to suggest guiding principles for policymakers, and key recommendations for planners, engineers, and researchers."
This report talks about the development AV technology and its implication for low and legislative activity. It also focuses on the standards and regulations for AV technology, liability issues and provide guidance for policymakers.
In many countries the revenue from gasoline taxes is used to fund highways and other transportation infrastructure. As the number of electric vehicles on the road increases, this raises questions about the effectiveness and equity of this financing mechanism. In this paper, we ask whether electric vehicle drivers should pay a mileage tax.
The purpose of this report is to provide information on TNC activity in San Francisco, in order to help the San Francisco County Transportation Authority (Transportation Authority) fulfill its role as the Congestion Management Agency for San Francisco County. The report is also intended to inform the Transportation Authority board which is comprised of the members of the San Francisco Board of Supervisors, as well as state and local policy-makers in other arenas, and the general public, on the size, location and time-of-day characteristics of the TNC market in San Francisco.
This white paper presents a generalized evaluation framework that can be used for assessing project impacts within the context of transportation-related city projects. In support of this framework, we discuss a selection of metrics and data sources that are needed to evaluate the performance of smart city innovations. We first present a collection of projects and applications from near-term smart city concepts or actual pilot projects underway (i.e., Smart City Challenge, Federal Transit Administration (FTA) Mobility on Demand (MOD) Sandbox, and other pilot projects operating in the regions of Los Angeles, Portland, and San Francisco). These projects are identified and explained in Section 2 of this report. Using these projects as the basis for hypothetical case studies, we present selected metrics that would be necessary to evaluate and monitor the performance of such innovations over time. We then identify the data needs to compute those metrics and further highlight the gaps in known data resources that should be covered to enable their computation. The objective of this effort is to help guide future city planners, policy makers, and practitioners in understanding the design of key metrics 3 and data needs at the outset of a project to better facilitate the establishment of rigorous and thoughtful data collection requirements.
This report summarizes findings from a three-year collaboration between the World Economic Forum and The Boston Consulting Group (BCG) to explore how autonomous vehicles could reshape the future of urban mobility. The project built on the collective insights generated from the Autonomous and Urban Mobility Working Group (Working Group) of the System Initiative on Shaping the Future of Mobility, composed of roughly 35 business executives from diverse industries (including automotive, technology, logistics, insurance, utilities and infrastructure) that convened for 10 full-day workshops and numerous conference calls.
To help decision-makers understand the impact of AV technology on regional plans, modeling tools should anticipate automated vehicles’ effect on transportation networks and traveler choices.This research uses the Seattle region’s activity based travel model to test a range of travel behavior impacts from AV technology development. The existing model was not originally designed with automated vehicles in mind, so some modifications to the model assumptions are described in areas of roadway capacity, user values of time, and parking costs. Larger structural model changes are not yet considered.
We review the history, current developments, projected future trends and environmental impacts of automated vehicles (AVs) and on-demand mobility, and explore potential synergies. Many automobile manufacturers and Google plan to release AVs between 2017 and 2020, with potential benefits including increased safety, more efficient road use, increased driver productivity and energy savings. Combining on-demand mobility and AVs may amplify adoption of both, and further lower energy use and GHG emissions through the use of small, efficient shared AVs.
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